What was the most significant event for Canadian international property buyers in 2025?

The most significant single event was Royal LePage's August 2025 survey finding that 54% of Canadians with US residential property were considering selling — a number that shocked the industry and validated what agents and advisors had been observing anecdotally for months. The survey, based on 2,500 Canadians, captured a compressed, high-velocity shift that had been building since early 2025 when Canada-US political friction intensified under the second Trump administration. Prior to 2025, the pattern of Canadians reconsidering US property was visible but gradual. After the Royal LePage survey, the scale and speed of the shift became undeniable — and triggered a wave of market analysis, media coverage, and Canadian buyer interest in alternatives that reshaped the flow of 2025 demand. Mexico, the Dominican Republic, and Panama absorbed most of the redirected intent, with Mexico (particularly Puerto Vallarta, Mazatlán, and the Riviera Maya) receiving the largest visible increase in Canadian buyer inquiries and transactions. See our full analysis: Snowbird Alternatives to Florida 2026 .

What did the end of Portugal's NHR program mean for Canadian buyers?

Portugal's Non-Habitual Resident (NHR) tax regime was one of the most powerful incentives driving Canadian buyer interest in Portugal from approximately 2018 through 2023. Under NHR, new residents who qualified could receive a flat 10% tax rate on foreign-sourced income (pensions, rental income from other countries, investment returns) for 10 years. For a Canadian retiree with CPP, OAS, and rental income from a Canadian property, this meant paying 10% Portuguese tax on that income rather than full Portuguese marginal rates — a significant advantage. The NHR program was replaced by IFICI (Incentivo Fiscal à Investigação Científica e Inovação) in January 2024. IFICI is targeted at innovation-sector workers — technology, scientific research, and qualified activity categories — and does not provide the broad income tax advantage that NHR offered to retirees. Most Canadian snowbirds and retirees seeking residency in Portugal do not qualify for IFICI. The practical impact: Portugal's attractiveness as a tax-advantaged destination for Canadian retirees has materially decreased. It remains an excellent lifestyle destination with a practical D7 Visa pathway and no foreign buyer restrictions — but the tax engineering case that drove many 2020–2023 Canadian buyer decisions is no longer available in the same form. See our full guide: Portugal IFICI/NHR for Canadians .

How many Canadians were affected by FIRPTA when selling US property in 2025?

Exact FIRPTA filing numbers for Canadian sellers are not publicly released, but the scale is significant. FIRPTA (Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act) requires the buyer of US property sold by a foreign person to withhold 15% of the gross sale price at closing and remit it to the IRS. Every Canadian selling a US property (Florida, Arizona, Hawaii, or any other state) is subject to FIRPTA unless an exemption applies (the sale price is under $300,000 and the buyer intends to use it as a primary residence — reducing withholding to 0% — or 10% if sale price is $300,001–$1M and buyer will use as primary residence). With 54% of Canadians with US property considering selling, and Canadian snowbird property ownership concentrated heavily in Florida (estimated 50,000+ Canadian-owned properties in Florida alone), the volume of FIRPTA withholdings processed in 2025 was substantial. For individual sellers, the process: 15% is held at closing; you file IRS Form 1040-NR for the sale year; your actual capital gains tax is calculated and the excess withholding is refunded — but refund timelines from the IRS run 6–18 months. Many Canadian sellers in 2025 were experiencing their first FIRPTA encounter and required cross-border tax assistance. See our dedicated guide: FIRPTA for Canadians Selling US Property .

What were the top-performing Canadian buyer destinations in 2025?

Based on Compass Abroad's inquiry and transaction data, combined with publicly available market reports, the ranking of Canadian buyer destinations by demand growth in 2025: (1) Mexico (Pacific coast — Puerto Vallarta, Mazatlán, Riviera Nayarit) — largest absolute demand increase, driven by the Florida exodus and WestJet route expansion. (2) Dominican Republic (Punta Cana, Cap Cana) — strong growth driven by direct Canadian flights, CONFOTUR benefits, and lower entry prices than Mexico coastal markets. (3) Colombia (Medellín) — new entrant, fastest percentage growth from a low base; significant increase in Canadian buyer awareness. (4) Portugal (Algarve, Lisbon) — sustained lifestyle demand from D7 Visa buyers, though down from the 2021–2023 Golden Visa peak. (5) Panama (Panama City, Boquete) — consistent Pensionado visa interest; modest growth. Mexico dominated in absolute volume; Colombia was the fastest-growing on a percentage basis; Portugal was down from peak but stable on a lifestyle-buyer basis. The Dominican Republic punched above its usual weight, absorbing significant Florida-exit demand from Ontario and Quebec buyers with direct flights from Toronto and Montreal.

What does 2025's market data mean for buyers in 2026?

The 2025 data points to several clear 2026 implications. (1) Mexico is the default recommendation for most Canadian snowbird buyers — the combination of flight access, price, and quality of life is unmatched. Buyers who hesitated in 2025 will find 2026 prices somewhat higher in the fastest-growing markets (Mazatlán, Playa del Carmen), but still dramatically below Florida equivalents. (2) The EU investor residency landscape is narrower — buyers who want EU residency via property investment now have fewer and more expensive options. Greece at €250K (in eligible regions) is one of the few remaining accessible Golden Visa pathways; Portugal's D7 (income-based, not investment minimum) remains excellent for income-qualified buyers. (3) The FIRPTA/US-exit process is becoming more familiar but also more complex as IRS processing times lengthen — Canadian sellers of US property should budget 12–18 months for refund processing and engage a cross-border CPA well before listing. (4) T1135 compliance is under increasing scrutiny — the growth in Canadians owning foreign property has triggered more CRA attention to foreign property verification. File correctly and on time. (5) Mexico market selection matters more in 2026 than it did in 2020 — the divergence between strong markets (Mazatlán, established PV corridors) and oversupplied markets (Tulum, some Cancun sub-markets) is real and widening. Market-specific due diligence is essential. See our Mexico market forecast and 2026–2027 snowbird guide .

What happened with T1135 compliance in 2025?

2025 saw a notable increase in T1135 compliance activity, driven by two forces. First, the growth in Canadians owning foreign property — particularly from the 2020–2024 Mexico, Dominican Republic, and Portugal purchase waves — has increased the total number of Canadians who have T1135 obligations. Many first-time foreign property owners in 2020–2022 are now receiving their third or fourth T1135 filing reminder from their accountants, and the learning curve for annual compliance is established. Second, CRA has increased its verification of T1135 filings as part of broader international tax compliance enforcement. The Foreign Account Compliance framework and data-sharing between Canada and other countries' tax authorities (under OECD's Common Reporting Standard, CRS) means CRA has more information about foreign property ownership than ever before — and can cross-reference T1135 filings against that data. The consequences: late or non-filing penalties are $25/day up to $2,500, and gross negligence penalties can reach 5% of the property's cost per year. The Voluntary Disclosure Program (VDP) can reduce penalties for late filers, but CRA updated its VDP guidelines to make relief less automatic — particularly for repeat non-filers or those who come forward only after a CRA inquiry. If you own foreign property worth more than CAD $100,000 and have not been filing T1135, engage a cross-border accountant to review your situation and file amended returns before CRA contacts you. See our guides: Canadian Tax on Foreign Property and T1135 VDP Guide .

What was the biggest risk that emerged for Canadian buyers abroad in 2025?

The biggest emerging risk in 2025 was developer quality divergence in oversupplied markets — particularly Tulum and some secondary Mexican markets that saw speculative development 2022–2024. The pattern: developers launched pre-construction projects during the 2022–2024 period of peak international demand, collected deposits and installment payments, and in a number of cases either delayed construction significantly or, in some instances, failed to complete. This is not new to Mexican real estate — developer default has always been a risk — but the scale of the 2022–2024 construction boom created a larger-than-usual exposure. Canadian buyers who purchased pre-construction in Tulum and certain other markets in 2022–2024 and paid installments without escrow protections are in some cases dealing with delayed or stalled completions. The lesson for 2026: insist on escrow for all pre-construction payments, verify developer completion track record on prior projects, engage an independent Mexican real estate attorney (not the developer's attorney), and be skeptical of projected rental yields that cannot be supported by actual occupancy data from completed comparable units. See our Mexico buying guide and Mexico market forecast for the full due diligence framework.

How did the Belize QRP visa perform as an alternative in 2025?

Belize's Qualified Retired Persons (QRP) program received renewed attention in 2025 as Canadian buyers looking at accessible alternatives to Panama's Pensionado encountered Belize's offering. The QRP requires applicants to be at least 45 years old with verifiable foreign-sourced income of at least USD $2,000 per month (from pension, investment, or other passive sources). Unlike some programs that require a specific investment in country, the QRP is primarily income-based. Benefits include exemption from Belize income tax on foreign-sourced income, duty-free import of household goods and personal vehicle, and a clear permanent residency pathway. Belize has several distinctive advantages: English is the official language (unique in Central America), the Belize dollar is permanently pegged 2:1 to the USD (no currency risk), freehold property ownership is available to foreign buyers, and Belize is significantly cheaper than Panama for day-to-day living. The drawbacks: Belize is smaller with less developed infrastructure than Panama or Costa Rica; healthcare requires travel for serious conditions; and the property market is less liquid than Panama or Mexico. But for the right Canadian buyer — those who want English, USD stability, Caribbean beach access, and a smaller community character — Belize remains an underrated option. See our Belize QRP visa guide .

What was the most significant event for Canadian international property buyers in 2025?

The most significant single event was Royal LePage's August 2025 survey finding that 54% of Canadians with US residential property were considering selling — a number that shocked the industry and validated what agents and advisors had been observing anecdotally for months. The survey, based on 2,500 Canadians, captured a compressed, high-velocity shift that had been building since early 2025 when Canada-US political friction intensified under the second Trump administration. Prior to 2025, the pattern of Canadians reconsidering US property was visible but gradual. After the Royal LePage survey, the scale and speed of the shift became undeniable — and triggered a wave of market analysis, media coverage, and Canadian buyer interest in alternatives that reshaped the flow of 2025 demand. Mexico, the Dominican Republic, and Panama absorbed most of the redirected intent, with Mexico (particularly Puerto Vallarta, Mazatlán, and the Riviera Maya) receiving the largest visible increase in Canadian buyer inquiries and transactions. See our full analysis: Snowbird Alternatives to Florida 2026 .

What did the end of Portugal's NHR program mean for Canadian buyers?

Portugal's Non-Habitual Resident (NHR) tax regime was one of the most powerful incentives driving Canadian buyer interest in Portugal from approximately 2018 through 2023. Under NHR, new residents who qualified could receive a flat 10% tax rate on foreign-sourced income (pensions, rental income from other countries, investment returns) for 10 years. For a Canadian retiree with CPP, OAS, and rental income from a Canadian property, this meant paying 10% Portuguese tax on that income rather than full Portuguese marginal rates — a significant advantage. The NHR program was replaced by IFICI (Incentivo Fiscal à Investigação Científica e Inovação) in January 2024. IFICI is targeted at innovation-sector workers — technology, scientific research, and qualified activity categories — and does not provide the broad income tax advantage that NHR offered to retirees. Most Canadian snowbirds and retirees seeking residency in Portugal do not qualify for IFICI. The practical impact: Portugal's attractiveness as a tax-advantaged destination for Canadian retirees has materially decreased. It remains an excellent lifestyle destination with a practical D7 Visa pathway and no foreign buyer restrictions — but the tax engineering case that drove many 2020–2023 Canadian buyer decisions is no longer available in the same form. See our full guide: Portugal IFICI/NHR for Canadians .

How many Canadians were affected by FIRPTA when selling US property in 2025?

Exact FIRPTA filing numbers for Canadian sellers are not publicly released, but the scale is significant. FIRPTA (Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act) requires the buyer of US property sold by a foreign person to withhold 15% of the gross sale price at closing and remit it to the IRS. Every Canadian selling a US property (Florida, Arizona, Hawaii, or any other state) is subject to FIRPTA unless an exemption applies (the sale price is under $300,000 and the buyer intends to use it as a primary residence — reducing withholding to 0% — or 10% if sale price is $300,001–$1M and buyer will use as primary residence). With 54% of Canadians with US property considering selling, and Canadian snowbird property ownership concentrated heavily in Florida (estimated 50,000+ Canadian-owned properties in Florida alone), the volume of FIRPTA withholdings processed in 2025 was substantial. For individual sellers, the process: 15% is held at closing; you file IRS Form 1040-NR for the sale year; your actual capital gains tax is calculated and the excess withholding is refunded — but refund timelines from the IRS run 6–18 months. Many Canadian sellers in 2025 were experiencing their first FIRPTA encounter and required cross-border tax assistance. See our dedicated guide: FIRPTA for Canadians Selling US Property .

What were the top-performing Canadian buyer destinations in 2025?

Based on Compass Abroad's inquiry and transaction data, combined with publicly available market reports, the ranking of Canadian buyer destinations by demand growth in 2025: (1) Mexico (Pacific coast — Puerto Vallarta, Mazatlán, Riviera Nayarit) — largest absolute demand increase, driven by the Florida exodus and WestJet route expansion. (2) Dominican Republic (Punta Cana, Cap Cana) — strong growth driven by direct Canadian flights, CONFOTUR benefits, and lower entry prices than Mexico coastal markets. (3) Colombia (Medellín) — new entrant, fastest percentage growth from a low base; significant increase in Canadian buyer awareness. (4) Portugal (Algarve, Lisbon) — sustained lifestyle demand from D7 Visa buyers, though down from the 2021–2023 Golden Visa peak. (5) Panama (Panama City, Boquete) — consistent Pensionado visa interest; modest growth. Mexico dominated in absolute volume; Colombia was the fastest-growing on a percentage basis; Portugal was down from peak but stable on a lifestyle-buyer basis. The Dominican Republic punched above its usual weight, absorbing significant Florida-exit demand from Ontario and Quebec buyers with direct flights from Toronto and Montreal.

What does 2025's market data mean for buyers in 2026?

The 2025 data points to several clear 2026 implications. (1) Mexico is the default recommendation for most Canadian snowbird buyers — the combination of flight access, price, and quality of life is unmatched. Buyers who hesitated in 2025 will find 2026 prices somewhat higher in the fastest-growing markets (Mazatlán, Playa del Carmen), but still dramatically below Florida equivalents. (2) The EU investor residency landscape is narrower — buyers who want EU residency via property investment now have fewer and more expensive options. Greece at €250K (in eligible regions) is one of the few remaining accessible Golden Visa pathways; Portugal's D7 (income-based, not investment minimum) remains excellent for income-qualified buyers. (3) The FIRPTA/US-exit process is becoming more familiar but also more complex as IRS processing times lengthen — Canadian sellers of US property should budget 12–18 months for refund processing and engage a cross-border CPA well before listing. (4) T1135 compliance is under increasing scrutiny — the growth in Canadians owning foreign property has triggered more CRA attention to foreign property verification. File correctly and on time. (5) Mexico market selection matters more in 2026 than it did in 2020 — the divergence between strong markets (Mazatlán, established PV corridors) and oversupplied markets (Tulum, some Cancun sub-markets) is real and widening. Market-specific due diligence is essential. See our Mexico market forecast and 2026–2027 snowbird guide .

What happened with T1135 compliance in 2025?

2025 saw a notable increase in T1135 compliance activity, driven by two forces. First, the growth in Canadians owning foreign property — particularly from the 2020–2024 Mexico, Dominican Republic, and Portugal purchase waves — has increased the total number of Canadians who have T1135 obligations. Many first-time foreign property owners in 2020–2022 are now receiving their third or fourth T1135 filing reminder from their accountants, and the learning curve for annual compliance is established. Second, CRA has increased its verification of T1135 filings as part of broader international tax compliance enforcement. The Foreign Account Compliance framework and data-sharing between Canada and other countries' tax authorities (under OECD's Common Reporting Standard, CRS) means CRA has more information about foreign property ownership than ever before — and can cross-reference T1135 filings against that data. The consequences: late or non-filing penalties are $25/day up to $2,500, and gross negligence penalties can reach 5% of the property's cost per year. The Voluntary Disclosure Program (VDP) can reduce penalties for late filers, but CRA updated its VDP guidelines to make relief less automatic — particularly for repeat non-filers or those who come forward only after a CRA inquiry. If you own foreign property worth more than CAD $100,000 and have not been filing T1135, engage a cross-border accountant to review your situation and file amended returns before CRA contacts you. See our guides: Canadian Tax on Foreign Property and T1135 VDP Guide .

What was the biggest risk that emerged for Canadian buyers abroad in 2025?

The biggest emerging risk in 2025 was developer quality divergence in oversupplied markets — particularly Tulum and some secondary Mexican markets that saw speculative development 2022–2024. The pattern: developers launched pre-construction projects during the 2022–2024 period of peak international demand, collected deposits and installment payments, and in a number of cases either delayed construction significantly or, in some instances, failed to complete. This is not new to Mexican real estate — developer default has always been a risk — but the scale of the 2022–2024 construction boom created a larger-than-usual exposure. Canadian buyers who purchased pre-construction in Tulum and certain other markets in 2022–2024 and paid installments without escrow protections are in some cases dealing with delayed or stalled completions. The lesson for 2026: insist on escrow for all pre-construction payments, verify developer completion track record on prior projects, engage an independent Mexican real estate attorney (not the developer's attorney), and be skeptical of projected rental yields that cannot be supported by actual occupancy data from completed comparable units. See our Mexico buying guide and Mexico market forecast for the full due diligence framework.

How did the Belize QRP visa perform as an alternative in 2025?

Belize's Qualified Retired Persons (QRP) program received renewed attention in 2025 as Canadian buyers looking at accessible alternatives to Panama's Pensionado encountered Belize's offering. The QRP requires applicants to be at least 45 years old with verifiable foreign-sourced income of at least USD $2,000 per month (from pension, investment, or other passive sources). Unlike some programs that require a specific investment in country, the QRP is primarily income-based. Benefits include exemption from Belize income tax on foreign-sourced income, duty-free import of household goods and personal vehicle, and a clear permanent residency pathway. Belize has several distinctive advantages: English is the official language (unique in Central America), the Belize dollar is permanently pegged 2:1 to the USD (no currency risk), freehold property ownership is available to foreign buyers, and Belize is significantly cheaper than Panama for day-to-day living. The drawbacks: Belize is smaller with less developed infrastructure than Panama or Costa Rica; healthcare requires travel for serious conditions; and the property market is less liquid than Panama or Mexico. But for the right Canadian buyer — those who want English, USD stability, Caribbean beach access, and a smaller community character — Belize remains an underrated option. See our Belize QRP visa guide .

Reviewed on March 2026 by the Compass Abroad editorial team

2025 Year in Review: What Happened and What It Means for Canadian Buyers in 2026

Q: Which European Golden Visa programs closed or tightened in 2024–2025?

Multiple European Golden Visa programs closed or significantly tightened during 2024–2025, marking a structural change in the investor residency landscape that had been available to Canadians for a decade. Portugal closed its residential real estate Golden Visa in October 2023 (full impact in 2024–2025). Spain announced the closure of its Golden Visa program in 2024 — applications already in process were continued through 2025, but no new residential investment applications are accepted. Greece increased the minimum investment threshold for Golden Visa in premium areas (Athens, Thessaloniki, Mykonos, Santorini) from €250,000 to €800,000 effective August 2023; the lower €250,000 threshold remains available in less-populated areas. Ireland suspended its Immigrant Investor Programme in 2023. The net effect: the accessible EU investor residency landscape available to Canadians in 2020 (€250,000 to €500,000 investments in Portugal, Spain, Greece, Malta, Cyprus) has narrowed dramatically. In 2026, Greece at €250,000 (in eligible regions) and Malta's options remain the most accessible remaining EU pathways, alongside Portugal's D7 (income-based, not investment-based) and Spain's work/retirement visa options. See our Golden Visa comparison guide for Canadians .

2025 was the most disruptive year for Canadian international property buyers in a generation. The headline events: 54% of Canadians with US property considering selling (Royal LePage); Portugal's Golden Visa closed to residential investment and NHR replaced by the narrow IFICI; Spain announced Golden Visa closure; FIRPTA filings surged as Canadians exited Florida; and Mexico absorbed most of the redirected Canadian demand. The result is a fundamentally reshaped market heading into 2026.

This annual review synthesizes the year's most significant developments, quantifies the market data behind the headlines, and draws the implications for Canadian buyers making decisions in 2026. It will be updated each year at this URL.

54%

Canadian US property owners considering selling — August 2025 Royal LePage

European Golden Visa programs closed or tightened in 2024–2025

15%

FIRPTA withholding on US property sales by Canadians

97M

Tourist arrivals to Mexico in 2025 — sustains rental demand

Key Takeaways

2025 was the most disruptive year for Canadian international property buyers since the post-COVID travel reopening in 2022 — characterized by a compressed, high-velocity shift away from US property and toward Latin American and European alternatives.
Portugal's Golden Visa program closed to residential property investment in late 2023, with the full market impact felt in 2024–2025. The NHR (Non-Habitual Resident) tax regime was formally replaced by IFICI in January 2024 — effectively ending Portugal's marketing as a tax-advantaged destination for Canadian retirees.
The snowbird Florida exodus accelerated dramatically in 2025: 54% of Canadians with US property were considering selling by August 2025 (Royal LePage, n=2,500), up from approximately 23% the year before. Canada-US political friction, the weak CAD/USD, and Florida's insurance crisis were the three converging drivers.
FIRPTA withholding filings by Canadian sellers of US property surged in 2025 — the IRS-mandated 15% gross proceeds withholding applied to thousands of Canadians selling Florida and Sunbelt condos, triggering US non-resident tax returns and generating significant cross-border tax compliance work.
Mexico absorbed the largest share of redirected Canadian snowbird demand — Puerto Vallarta, Mazatlán, and the Riviera Maya all saw measurable increases in Canadian buyer inquiries and transactions in 2025.
Other countries that closed or significantly tightened their Golden Visa or investor residency programs during 2024–2025: Spain (announced closure of Golden Visa program), Greece (increased investment thresholds in popular areas to €800K), Ireland (suspended its investor program). The era of broadly accessible EU investor residency is narrowing.
Canada's T1135 voluntary disclosure pipeline saw an increase in 2025 as Canadians who had purchased abroad in prior years and not filed approached the Voluntary Disclosure Program — penalty relief declined under CRA's updated VDP rules.
Medellín, Colombia and Lisbon, Portugal emerged as the two new-entrant destinations attracting serious Canadian buyer attention in 2025 for the first time — both benefiting from word-of-mouth among the Canadian expat community and improved flight connections.
The Belize QRP (Qualified Retired Persons) visa remained one of the most attractive retirement visas in the Caribbean despite receiving less attention than Panama's Pensionado — USD economy, English language, Belize dollar pegged to USD, freehold property rights for foreigners.
The RRSP/TFSA-foreign property intersection attracted regulatory attention: CRA issued additional guidance in 2025 clarifying that using RRSP/TFSA funds to invest in foreign real property (directly or through certain structures) remains prohibited, and that penalties for non-compliant structures would be enforced.

Key Facts: 2025 in Review

Canadian US Property Sellers 2025: 54% considering selling — Royal LePage, n=2,500, August 2025(Royal LePage)
Portugal NHR Replacement: IFICI replaced NHR January 2024 — most Canadian retirees do not qualify for IFICI(Portuguese Government)
Portugal Golden Visa (Residential): Closed to residential investment October 2023 — full impact felt 2024–2025(Portuguese Government)
Spain Golden Visa: Announced closure in 2024 — processing continued through 2025 for existing applications(Spanish Government)
Greece Golden Visa Threshold: Increased to €800K in Attica, Mykonos, Santorini, Thessaloniki effective August 2023(Greek Government)
FIRPTA Withholding Rate: 15% of gross sale proceeds — held at closing for IRS; applicable to Canadian sellers of US property(IRS)
Mexico Tourism 2025: ~97M arrivals — at or above pre-pandemic peak; supports short-term rental demand(SECTUR Mexico)
Top Gaining Canada Destination 2025: Mexico (Riviera Maya + Pacific Coast) — largest share of redirected US exodus demand(Compass Abroad)
Belize QRP Qualification: USD $2,000/month income (foreign-sourced), freehold property rights for QRP holders(BTB Belize)
CRA RRSP/TFSA Foreign Property: Guidance reconfirmed: direct or indirect foreign real estate in RRSP/TFSA remains prohibited(CRA 2025)

The Florida Exodus: How 2025 Changed the Snowbird Market

The most consequential single data point of 2025 was Royal LePage's August survey finding that 54% of Canadians with US property were considering selling. For context: just one year earlier, the comparable figure was approximately 23%. A 31-percentage-point shift in one year represents a velocity of market sentiment change that is genuinely unprecedented for this demographic.

Three forces were cited: the Canada-US political climate under the second Trump administration (tariffs, "51st state" rhetoric, border friction), the weak CAD/USD rate (~0.72, a 22-year low making US property taxes, insurance, and carrying costs significantly more expensive in Canadian terms), and Florida's ongoing insurance crisis (multiple carriers exiting the state, premiums doubling and tripling in coastal counties). The combination created a tipping point — not gradually, but in a compressed 12-month window.

The actual transaction activity that followed the sentiment shift: thousands of Canadians listed their Florida condos in 2025, triggering FIRPTA withholding events and cross-border tax filings. The proceeds were redeployed into Mexico (the largest beneficiary), the Dominican Republic, Portugal, and Panama. In some markets — Puerto Vallarta, Playa del Carmen, Mazatlán — the increase in Canadian buyer inquiries was dramatic enough to be visible in price data within the calendar year. See our full analysis: Snowbird Alternatives to Florida 2026 and Florida to Mexico: The Snowbird Transition Guide.

Golden Visa Closures: The End of Easy EU Investor Residency

The era of broadly accessible EU investor residency via property investment — which had been available to Canadians since approximately 2012 — effectively ended in 2024–2025. The timeline:

Portugal: Golden Visa residential property pathway closed October 2023. NHR replaced by IFICI January 2024. Most Canadian retirees do not qualify for IFICI. The D7 Visa (income-based, not investment minimum) remains fully open.
Spain: Golden Visa closure announced 2024. Applications in process continued through 2025 but new residential applications closed.
Greece: Investment threshold for popular areas (Athens, Thessaloniki, Mykonos, Santorini) raised to €800K in August 2023 — effectively closing the affordable pathway in the destinations Canadians actually want.
Ireland: Investor programme suspended 2023.

What remains: Greece's €250K pathway in eligible (less-populated) regions; Portugal's D7 Visa (income-based residency, no investment minimum); Malta's various programs. The accessible EU investor residency landscape has narrowed structurally. Canadian buyers seeking EU residency in 2026 have fewer options and higher investment thresholds than in 2021. See our updated Golden Visa comparison guide.

The FIRPTA Wave: What Happened When Canadians Sold Their US Property

FIRPTA — the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act — requires the buyer of any US property sold by a foreign person to withhold 15% of the gross sale price at closing and remit it to the IRS. For Canadians, this means: on a $500,000 USD Florida condo sale, $75,000 is held at closing. The seller receives $425,000 immediately and must file a US non-resident tax return (Form 1040-NR) to have the actual capital gains liability calculated. If the liability is less than the withholding, the IRS refunds the difference — but IRS processing takes 6–18 months.

The 2025 surge in Canadian Florida sales created a large cohort of first-time FIRPTA filers — Canadians who had never encountered the mechanism because they had never sold a US property. The complexity: the FIRPTA withholding is a prepayment, not a final tax. Canadians also owe Canadian capital gains tax on the same gain (50% inclusion rate, at marginal rates), with a foreign tax credit for the US tax paid. Filing both returns correctly, in the right sequence, with the right credit claims, requires a cross-border CPA — not simply a Canadian accountant. The cost of not filing correctly can include double taxation, delayed refunds, and penalties in both jurisdictions. See our dedicated guide: FIRPTA for Canadians Selling US Property and Selling US Property and Buying Mexico.

What 2025 Means for 2026: The Forward Outlook

The 2025 events have set a trajectory that will play out through 2026 and beyond. Key implications:

Mexico prices have moved: Buyers who hesitated in 2025 will find 2026 prices 10–20% higher in Mazatlán and Playa del Carmen. The opportunity has shifted from "early mover" to "still compelling relative to Florida" — the value case remains strong but the floor has risen.
EU residency requires more capital or different strategy: The D7 Visa (Portugal, income-based) and the Greece €250K pathway (in eligible regions) are the most accessible remaining options. Buyers who needed €250K in Portugal residential in 2022 now need a different strategy.
FIRPTA refunds are in the pipeline: Thousands of Canadians who sold US property in 2025 are waiting for IRS refunds that may arrive in late 2026. This creates a second wave of reinvestment capital that will likely flow into the same alternative destinations that captured 2025 intent.
T1135 compliance is non-optional: CRA's increased attention, combined with the growth in the foreign property owner population, makes T1135 non-filing a meaningful risk. File on time, every year.

See our 2026–2027 snowbird guide and 2026 Mexico market forecast for the forward-looking analysis.

2025 Top Destination Data Summary

Key data points from the year's top Canadian buyer destinations:

Mexico: ~97M tourist arrivals; Puerto Vallarta 12–18% cumulative appreciation since 2023; Mazatlán 15–20% appreciation in 2024–2025; Tulum oversupply risk flagged by multiple market analysts
Dominican Republic: CONFOTUR pipeline active; Punta Cana resort condos seeing strong Canadian buyer demand; direct flight capacity from Toronto and Montreal expanded
Portugal: Golden Visa closed (residential); NHR replaced; D7 Visa applications from Canadians up; Algarve prices stable
Costa Rica: Strong USD demand from US expats; Tamarindo and Manuel Antonio seeing highest Canadian buyer interest; CAJA healthcare costs increasing modestly
Panama: Consistent Pensionado visa demand; JCI-accredited hospital network gaining Canadian reputation; Panama City condo market stable
Colombia (Medellín): New-entrant status in Canadian buyer awareness; El Poblado condo market from CAD $130K; fastest-growing destination by percentage demand change

For destination-specific guides, see our destinations directory.

Frequently Asked Questions

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